The Academy Awards air on Sunday (will you be watching?) and I expect anticlimactic results. The combination of film festival awards, critics prizes, and industry awards from various Guilds, as well as “insider buzz” means most likely winners are coronated before the ceremony. The Oscars are frequently at odds with the tastes of critics and film scholars who find sentimentality, formulaicness, commercialism, and spectacle as the default criteria for the films it recognizes. This might feel amplified given the reluctant return to in-person theatre going. I would also add that neither this year nor last were great years for films. When I think about such contemporary cinematic masterpieces as Beasts of the Southern Wild, Sorry to Bother You, and Moonlight it’s hard to fathom conventional biopics and remakes as the “best” of cinema circa 2021-22.

I believe Regina, Amy, and Wanda can keep the Oscars ceremony interesting (and under four hours!)

I have seen most but not all of the nominees in the major categories so my perception of the most notable screenplays, performances, directions, and films of the eligibility period are defined by what I have seen. Apparently, many Academy voters fail to watch many of the nominees as well, if the secret “anonymous” ballots various websites publish annually are to be believed. Alas.

Best Picture:

The Power of the Dog tackles the mythologies of Western cowboy masculinity powerfully. There are enough iconic moments and deft twists to make it worth re-watching for further appreciation.

Flee, Summer of Soul, and The Worst Person in the World which are far more daring and intriguing than most of the middle-of-the road films nominated could easily replace several nominees here but “foreign” films, documentaries, and animated films rarely get nominated as Best Picture.

Best Director:

The Power of the Dog didn’t direct itself. The accolades Jane Camion has received are apt. I look forward to her speech this time around.

Best Actor:

I haven’t seen Denzel but I trust that he is appropriately epic. His status as one of greatest actors ever is secure so let’s move on. Will Smith is doing a mannered interpretation. Andrew Garfield is “doing the most” as the kids say but the movie is too earnest for its own good. Javier Bardem is a great actor (check him out in Before Night Falls for a master class) but Desi Arnaz is a stretch for him. By default: Benedict Cumberbatch finds the terror and tenderness in the tragic Phil Burbank.

Best Actress:

I have not yet seen Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers. Given Pedro Almodovar’s track record I’m sure it’s a fine film with superior performances. Based on what I have seen: Spencer is petulant and tedious; even Kristen Stewart seems bored. Nicole Kidman has many gifts but I didn’t find her or the film very convincing. Olivia Colman does her thing well but supporting actress nominees Jess Buckley has the more challenging role. Jessica Chastain who has been excellent for a long time brings intelligence, warmth and pathos to Tammy Faye Baker.

I wish Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve had been nominated for The Worst Person in the World.

Best Supporting Actor:

I haven’t seen Belfast and CODA. I have seen the other performances, however. Simmons chews the scenery well but it’s one note and Plemons gives a hushed subtle performance. Kodi Smit-McPhee, however, has such an odd, unnerving presence in the film you can’t unsee anything he does in the film. His performance is creepy, disarming, and brilliant performance is the anchor of the film.

Robin de Jesús, who is a well-regadred stage actor, should have gotten his propers for his excellent performance in Tick, Tick…Boom!

Jesse Buckley is brilliant in *The Lost Daughter*. She faces serious competition from *Westside Story*’s Ariana DuBose and *King Richard*’s Aujunae Ellis

Best Supporting Actress:

Now this category has some DRAMA! I haven’t seen Belfast or Westside Story. Ariana DuBose is the rumored frontrunner and though I missed her performance she was aces on SNL so I ain’t mad if she wins. I have to say, Aujunae Ellis is the unsung hero of King Richard. She plays Oracene “Brandy” Price with fierce intelligence. Though Price is often overlooked in media coverage of the Williams Sisters the screenplay makes it clear their mother is central to their achievements. She supports and challenges her daughters and addresses her often problematic husband as needed. If you appreciated Ellis in When They See Us and Lovecraft Country you will relish this cinematic opportunity. I was equally fond of Jesse Buckley in The Lost Daughter. Kudos to director and screenwriter Maggie Gyllenhaal for not glossing over the genuine complexities of excelling professionally (or just functioning) as an academic and raising children. The role is daring for multiple reasons and she brings an authentic sensibility to it. Like I said: DRAMA.

Also, Olga Merediz, who won a Tony for her role as Abuela Claudia in the Broadway production of In the Heights, should be in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Lost Daughter or The Power of the Dog should prevail. Gyllenhaal is a formidable filmmaker who should have been nominated as Best Director so this might be a consolatory nod to her. Campion tells this story quite effectively though so either seems fair.

Best Original Screenplay:

The Worst Person in the World inverts the bland formal conventions of “coming of age” type films brilliantly. Give it to Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier.

Best Animated Feature, Best Documentary, & Best International Feature:

More DRAMA! Flee is the first film nominated in all three which speaks volumes about its powerful depiction of an Afghani man, and his family’s, search for refuge. To keep the peace (in my own mind, there are so many fine nominees in these categories) I recommend the following:

· Flee for Animated Feature

· Summer of Soul for Documentary

· Japan’s entry Drive My Car (I haven’t seen it but everyone raves) for International Feature with Worst as the alternate. If Worst wins Original Screenplay I’m really OK with this decision.

The Oscars are compromised fundamentally so their validation is more symbolic than anything. Based on the various prognosticators: I expect The Power of the Dog to win Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. I’m guessing Will Smith, Jessica Chastain, Ariana DuBose, and Troy Kotsur (CODA) will win the acting prizes. Worst seems likely to win best screenplay. The rest: Encanto is a crowd-pleaser so Animated Feature seems inevitable; Summer of Soul is the likely winner for Documentary; Drive seems to have the edge for international feature.

2022 Oscar recommendations and predictions

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